Causal inference · AI evaluation · B2B decision science

Most analytics questions look like they need a query and actually need an identification strategy.

I build things that make the difference measurable: synthetic data with planted ground truth, so estimates and agents can be scored rather than argued about.

Track record

Bell 2023–2025 · Meta 2025–present

$2M

cost savings from replacing third-party crowdsourced data with an internal solution

28%

reduction in congestion-related network impact

100+ hrs

of manual reporting eliminated per event cycle through the FIFA World Cup reporting pipeline

40+

users of Bell's Data-as-a-Service dashboard

Case studies

EFFECT PER CUSTOMERTRUTH $5.87NAIVE$23.03IPW$6.38AIPW$6.42$0$10$2095% CI · CROSS-FITTEDAIPW ERROR 9.3%
Source · ecommerce-promo-causal / results/estimates.csv

01 · Causal inference

A promo that looked like $23 per customer made $6

A naive difference in means overstated a free-shipping promotion's effect by 3.6×. Cross-fitted AIPW recovered the planted truth to within 9%, and the economics flipped the recommendation.

Naive

$23

AIPW

$6

Error vs truth

9%

CORRECT CONCLUSIONS (SHARE).50.25.00A SINGLE CALL · .24B FIXED WORKFLOW · .41C AGENT · .3602.5K5KTOKENS PER TASK →38 GRADED TASKS · 3.8× COST, NO GAIN
Source · ecommerce-analytics-agent / results/comparison.csv

02 · AI evaluation

Does agentic complexity actually beat a fixed workflow?

A benchmark that grades an analytics agent's conclusions against known causal truth: not whether the SQL ran, but whether the answer was right and whether it overclaimed.

The arc

Studies

What is likely to happen?

Bell

Why is it happening?

Meta

What should we do?

Now

Did what we did actually create value?

Scope

Canada · Bell, through 2025

United States · Meta, now

LATAM · regional scope